Runout Simulation and Disaster Amplification of Dehenglong Paleolandslide-Dammed Lake-Outburst Flood Chain in the Upper Yellow River
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摘要:
位于青藏高原东北缘的黄河上游峡谷段发育了大量巨型古滑坡-堰塞湖-溃决洪水灾害链，厘清其运动演化过程对防控此类灾害链具有重要意义.在野外调查基础上，通过构建深度平均滑坡-堵河运动学模型与考虑颗粒物运移及物理侵蚀沉积机制的溃决洪水动力学耦合模型，以其中典型的德恒隆巨型滑坡灾害链为例开展模拟研究，系统分析了滑坡堵河-堰塞湖蓄水-溃决洪水的完整运动学过程.结果表明：德恒隆滑坡体积达35亿m3，峰值平均速度约44.5 m/s，总滑移时长约120 s，形成堰塞坝高达234 m，堵塞黄河形成面积约280 km2、库容约232.3亿m3的巨型堰塞湖；堰塞坝溃决过程持续约100 h，洪峰流量达23.8万m3/s，洪水沿黄河河道波及下游900 km流域，最高洪水位达158 m.相比于滑坡本身的运动距离，本次巨型滑坡-堵河-溃坝洪水灾害链波及了上下游约1 000 km河道范围内的广大区域，具有显著的灾害放大效应.研究成果可为黄河流域滑坡灾害链的风险评估与防灾决策提供科学依据.
Abstract:The upper Yellow River canyon on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau has developed numerous giant paleo-landslide-dammed lake-outburst flood disaster chains. Understanding their kinematic evolution is crucial for mitigating such cascading hazards. Based on field investigations, this study constructs a depth-averaged landslide damming kinematic model and a coupled outburst flood dynamics model incorporating sediment transport and physical erosion/deposition mechanisms, using the typical Dehenglong giant landslide disaster chain as a case study. The simulation systematically analyzes the entire kinematic process, including landslide damming, lake formation, and dam breaching. The results indicate that the Dehenglong landslide had a volume of 3.50 billion m3, reached a peak average velocity of 44.5 m/s, and had a total sliding duration of 120 s. This formed a 234 m-high dam that blocked the Yellow River, creating a giant dammed lake with an area of 280 km2 and a storage capacity of 23.23 billion m3. The dam breach lasted 100 h, with a peak discharge of 238 300 m3/s. The resulting flood propagated 900 km downstream along the Yellow River, reaching a maximum water level of 158 m. Compared to the landslide movement distance itself, this giant landslide-damming-outburst flood disaster chain affected a vast area spanning approximately 1 000 km of the river channel, exhibiting a significant disaster amplification effect. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and disaster prevention decision-making regarding landslide disaster chains along the Yellow River Basin.
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Key words:
- depth-averaged model /
- giant landslide /
- disaster chain /
- full-process simulation /
- engineering geology
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图 1 滑坡地理位置(a)、区域地质图(b)及地质剖面图(c)
Fig. 1. Geographical location (a), regional geological map (b), and geological cross-section of the landslide (c)
图 2 德恒隆滑坡区卫星影像(a)和滑坡全景图(b)
Fig. 2. Satellite imagery of the Dehenglong landslide area (a); panoramic view of the landslide (b)
图 3 不同摩擦系数和粘聚力条件下的滑坡堆积体厚度分布
蓝点为河道参考点；黑点为坝体最低点；虚线为实际滑坡主体范围
Fig. 3. Distribution of landslide deposit thickness under varying friction coefficients and cohesion conditions
图 5 堰塞湖面积与坝高关系曲线(a); 堰塞湖体积与坝高关系曲线(b)
Fig. 5. Relationship between landslide-dam lake area and dam height (a); relationship between landslide-dam lake volume and dam height (b)
图 7 堰塞坝溃决程度-时间曲线(a)；侵蚀速率-时间曲线(b)
Fig. 7. Temporal evolution of landslide-dam breach extent (a); erosion rate-time relationship(b)
图 9 德恒隆滑坡坝溃决洪水最大水深（不计黄河基础水深）及监测分布
Fig. 9. Maximum floodwater depth and monitoring distribution during the Dehenglong landslide-dam breach
表 1 物理力学参数
Table 1. Physical and mechanical parameters
摩擦系数μ 粘聚力(kPa) 密度(kg/m3) 0.12 20 2 490 
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表 2 溃决洪水模拟参数
Table 2. Simulation parameters of collapse flood
n α β φs φd ρs (kg/m3) e 0.038 1.00 0.10 0.577 0.462 2 490 0.32
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表 3 溃口流量估计参数
Table 3. Crash flow estimation parameters
Hd (m) V1 (m3) g (m/s2) a 234 23 230×106 9.81 1.236
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