Research Progress on Influence Patterns of Endogenic and Exogenic Dynamics on Geological Hazards in Southeast Tibet Plateau
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摘要:
藏东南活跃的内外动力地质作用，决定了该区域地质灾害在时间上的多期次特征和在空间上的链式特征，以及频繁而巨大的致灾效应.聚焦内外动力对藏东南地质灾害发生的影响模式，针对区域内外动力孕灾环境特征，分别提炼出断裂活动和地震等内动力地质作用、气候和河流等外动力地质作用对地质灾害的长期孕育模式和短期诱发模式，明确了内动力在大时空尺度上的主导作用和外动力在小时空尺度上的诱发作用.提出了藏东南地质灾害时空分析的系统性框架，从时空两个维度对藏东南地质灾害的特征和内外动力的多尺度综合影响模式进行概括，构建起区域地质灾害时空特征与内外动力影响的关联.结合研究现状，对进一步量化藏东南地质灾害内外动力影响的研究方向进行展望，认为最终必须明确藏东南地质灾害与内外动力环境关联的模式，以实现藏东南区域更精准的地质灾害防治、更有力的战略工程保障和更有效的气候变化应对.
Abstract:Southeast Tibet Plateau is characterized by active endogenic and exogenic processes, which result in the temporal multi-phase occurrence and spatially cascading nature of geohazards, leading to frequent and severe disastrous events. Focusing on the influence patterns of endogenic and exogenic forces on the occurrence of geohazards in Southeast Tibet Plateau, in this paper it summarized the hazard-prone environmental characteristics shaped by these dynamics. It identified endogenic processes—such as fault activity and earthquakes—as key drivers of long-term geohazard incubation, while exogenic processes—such as climate and river dynamics—serve as short-term triggering factors. The study highlighted the dominant role of endogenic dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales and the triggering role of exogenic dynamics at small scales. A systematic spatiotemporal analysis framework for geohazards in Southeast Tibet Plateau was proposed, which outlined the characteristics of geohazards across scales and synthesizes the multi-scale influence patterns of endogenic and exogenic dynamics. This framework established the linkage between the spatiotemporal features of regional geohazards and the controlling dynamic processes. Building on the current state of research, the study outlined future scopes for quantitatively assessing the influence of endogenic and exogenic dynamics on geohazards in Southeast Tibet Plateau. Ultimately, it aims to clarify the linkage patterns between geohazards and dynamic factors, thereby contributing to more precise disaster prevention, stronger support for strategic infrastructure, and more effective adaptation to the climate change in the region.
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图 1 青藏高原主要地体及缝合带与藏东南所处位置
Fig. 1. Major tectonic blocks and suture zones of the Tibetan Plateau, and the location of the Southeast Tibet Plateau
图 2 青藏高原水汽来源与藏东南水汽运移过程
a.青藏高原三大外部水汽来源和内部水汽循环（修改自Cheng et al.，2024）；b~f. 水汽通过雅鲁藏布大峡谷进入藏东南的过程
Fig. 2. Water vapor sources and transport pathways affecting Tibet Plateau
图 4 藏东南主要成灾载体和致灾过程
Fig. 4. Main geohazard carriers and motion processes in Southeast Tibet Plateau
表 1 藏东南地区典型多期地质灾害特征及其致灾情况
Table 1. Typical multi-phase geohazards and their disaster impacts in Southeast Tibet Plateau
灾害名称 发生时间 致灾情况 参考文献 天摩沟
泥石流1965年; 1970年; 1976年; 2007年9月; 2010年7月; 2010年9月; 2018年7月 2007—2018年的4次发生均不同程度堵塞帕隆藏布，掩埋国道318或形成堰塞湖 高波等(2019);
孟哲等(2022)培龙贡支
泥石流1983年7月；1984年7~8月；1984年10月；1985年5~6月；1983—1990年累计19次 堵塞帕隆藏布，1984年造成6人死亡; 1985年造成79辆货车被淹没 杨德宏等(2020) 扎木弄沟
滑坡/泥石流1900年; 2000年4月; 2015年8月(4次)；2020年7月; 2022年; 2024年 2000年堵塞易贡藏布，两乡三厂(场) 4 000余人受灾，雅鲁藏布江下游有5万人无家可归 王伟宇等(2020);
余国安等(2022);
袁浩等(2023)古乡泥石流 1953年9月; 1954年(37次); 1963年; 1972年, 此后每年频发; 2005年7月; 2005年8月 堵塞帕隆藏布，1953年造成140多人死亡 施雅风等(1964);
刘建康和程尊兰(2015)冬茹弄巴
泥石流1961年; 1963年7月; 1965年; 1967年; 1975年6月 1963年冲毁路基长度2 km，交通受阻20余天；1975年造成玉璞藏布堵塞，威胁下游玉普乡、松宗镇10余个村庄 吕儒仁和李德基(1989) 色东普
泥石流2001—2020年共发生5次(2018年10月2次) 堵塞雅鲁藏布江干流，形成堰塞坝 李壮等(2021) 
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