Slope Reliability Analysis Considering Degradation and Spatial Variability of Subsidence Zone Parameters
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摘要: 消落带上土体因反复干湿循环导致抗剪强度参数退化，且参数存在空间变异性，二者均是影响边坡稳定性的关键因素，而现有研究多仅考虑其一. 为此，提出同时考虑这两种因素的边坡稳定可靠度分析新方法. 其中，使用Karhunen⁃Loève法模拟参数随机场，利用切片逆回归法进行降维，进而构建基于增强鲸鱼优化算法的极端梯度提升代理模型. 以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例进行分析，探讨了消落带抗剪强度参数退化和空间变异性对滑坡失效概率的影响. 结果表明：所提出方法能极大提高计算效率并准确估算滑坡失效概率（Pf）；滑坡Pf随消落带参数退化次数增加而增大，在第四次后趋于平稳；当不考虑水位变化时，饱和渗透系数空间变异性对可靠度结果影响较小，而有效内摩擦角的空间变异性对安全系数分布影响高于有效粘聚力.Abstract: The soil on the ablation zone is degraded in shear strength parameters due to repeated wet and dry cycles, and there is spatial variability in the parameters, both of which are key factors affecting slope stability, while most of the existing studies only consider one of them. For this reason, a new method for analyzing the stability and reliability of slopes that considers both factors is proposed. In this, a parameter random field is simulated using the Karhunen⁃Loève method, and dimensionality reduction is performed using sliced inverse regression, which in turn leads to the construction of an extreme gradient boosting surrogate model based on the augmented whale optimization algorithm. The Three Gorges Reservoir Area Baishuihe landslide is analyzed as an example to explore the effects of degradation of shear strength parameters and spatial variability of the ablation zone on the probability of landslide failure. The results show that: the proposed method can greatly improve the computational efficiency and accurately estimate the probability of landslide failure (Pf); landslide Pf increases with the number of degradation times of the parameters of the fallout zone and tends to stabilize after the fourth time; the spatial variability of saturated permeability coefficients has a small effect on the reliability results when water level changes are not taken into account, while the spatial variability of the effective internal friction angle has a higher effect on the distribution of the factor of safety than that of the effective cohesive force.
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图 13 FS和Pf随退化次数的变化
a. 平均FS; b. Pf
Fig. 13. Variation of FS and Pf with the number of degradations
图 15 考虑不同参数空间变异性下的FS和Pf的变化情况
Fig. 15. Variation of FS and Pf considering spatial variability of different parameters
图 16 考虑不同参数空间变异性下的FS直方图和拟合曲线
a. c'；b. φ'；c. 不考虑参数空间变异性；d. c'，φ'，ks
Fig. 16. Considering FS histograms and fitted curves under different parameter spatial variability
表 1 土体参数随退化次数的取值
Table 1. Values of soil parameters with the number of degradations
Di c' φ' 0 18.32 19.31 1 15.58 18.33 2 13.21 17.66 3 10.15 16.78 4 8.71 16.39 5 8.27 16.14 6 7.84 15.74 7 7.40 15.46 
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表 2 滑坡土体参数统计信息
Table 2. Statistical data of landslide soil parameters
分析 参数 均值(滑坡体) 均值(地基) 变异系数(滑坡体) 分布类型 稳定 c′ 18.32 kPa 190 kPa 0.3 对数正态 φ′ 19.31° 30.4° 0.2 γ 20.7 kN/m 25.6 kN/m3 - 确定性 渗流 θs 0.43 m3/m3 - - θr 0.02 m3/m3 - - a 50 kPa n 1.45 ks 0.43 m/d 0.01 m/d 0.6 对数正态
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表 3 不同退化次数下白水河滑坡的安全系数
Table 3. FS in the Baishuihe landslide under different numbers of degradations
Di FS 0 1.167 1 1.119 2 1.082 3 1.024 4 0.997 5 0.985 6 0.969 7 0.956
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