Mechanisms of High-Speed Long-Distance Landslides under Synergistic Effects of Glacial Meltwater and Rainfall
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摘要:
高速远程滑坡灾变模式复杂，诱发因素多样，其启滑机制及动力学演变阶段的判定是研究的重点与难点.以易贡高速远程滑坡为例，融合静力学反演与动力学模拟，揭示了冰川融水与降雨共同作用下的滑坡触发机制与运动特性.基于遥感影像、环剪试验与数字高程模型，采用极限平衡法标定关键参数（孔压系数），并在滑移路径预设松散堆积层，实现了剪切液化与铲刮效应的定量表征.结果表明，降雨与冰川融水显著增加孔隙水压力，降低抗剪强度，诱发滑坡失稳；运动过程中剪切液化与铲刮效应使滑体速度提升了32.1%，规模扩大了28.3%.模拟结果与实际工况吻合良好，为类似灾害风险防控提供了科学依据与方法.
Abstract:High-speed long-distance landslides exhibit complex disaster patterns and diverse triggering factors, making the determination of their initiation mechanisms and dynamic evolution stages a key research focus and challenge. This study takes the Yigong high-speed long-distance landslide as an example and integrates static inversion with dynamic simulation to reveal the triggering mechanism and movement characteristics of the landslide under the combined influence of glacial meltwater and rainfall. Based on remote sensing images, ring shear tests, and digital elevation models, key parameters (pore pressure coefficient) were calibrated using the limit equilibrium method, and a loose accumulation layer was preset along the sliding path to quantitatively characterize shear liquefaction and the scraping effect. The results show that rainfall and glacial meltwater significantly increase pore water pressure and reduce shear strength, leading to landslide instability. Furthermore, shear liquefaction and the scraping effect during motion increased the sliding speed by 32.1% and expanded the landslide scale by 28.3%. The simulation results agree well with actual conditions, providing a scientific basis and methodology for risk prevention and control of similar geological disasters.
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图 1 2000年5月4日（滑坡发生25 d后）获得的陆地卫星-7号图像（Delaney and Evans, 2015）
Fig. 1. Landsat-7 image obtained on May 4, 2000 (25 days after the landslide occurrence)(Delaney and Evans, 2015)
图 2 易贡滑坡典型剖面的Geo-Slope计算结果
a.滑坡条分模型；b.自重最大块体与自重最小块体的静力学分析
Fig. 2. Geo-Slope calculation results for a typical profile of the Yigong landslide
图 3 集成滑坡模拟模型的操作流程及本构模型原理（Dang et al., 2019）
Fig. 3. The operation flowchart and constitutive model principle of the integrated landslide simulation model (Dang et al., 2019)
图 4 高精度环剪仪及设计原理（Setiawan et al., 2018）
a.仪表箱；b.主控单元作为控制、监控箱；c.计算机系统；d.减压系统；e.孔隙压力供应系统；f.设计原理
Fig. 4. High precision ring shear apparatus (Setiawan et al., 2018)
图 5 由高精度环剪仪不排水剪切产生的典型有效应力路径（Tan et al., 2020）
Fig. 5. Typical effective stress path generated by the high precision ring shear apparatus (Tan et al., 2020)
图 6 集成滑坡模拟模型模拟结果
Fig. 6. The simulation results of the integrated landslide simulation model
图 8 结果对比
a. 滑坡前沿速度剖面；b. 滑坡堆积体厚度剖面. 黄色曲线据Zhou et al.（2020）；绿色曲线据Delaney and Evans（2015）；红色曲线据本文，其中，实线表示考虑了剪切液化与铲刮效应，虚线表示未考虑剪切液化与铲刮效应）；Delaney and Evans（2015）展示的地形剖面图以黑色表示，估计的源区用虚线棕色标出
Fig. 8. Result comparison
图 9 易贡滑坡A-A'剖面机理
Zhou et al.（2016）；Dai et al.（2021）；万佳威等（2021）
Fig. 9. Mechanism of the A-A' profile of the Yigong landslide
图 10 1998—2000年易贡3、4月份温度与降雨情况
Zhou et al.（2016）；Guo et al.（2023）
Fig. 10. Temperature and rainfall conditions in Yigong during March and April from 1998 to 2000
表 1 极限平衡法滑体参数
Table 1. Parameters of the sliding mass in the limit equilibrium method
参数 取值 单位重量（U） 18.45 kN/m3 粘聚力（c） 13 kPa 摩擦角（φ） 36.2° 
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表 2 有效路径图中符号及缩写的意义
Table 2. The meaning of symbols and abbreviations in the effective stress path
符号或缩写 意义 $ {\sigma }_{0} $ 初始法向应力 $ {\tau }_{0} $ 初始剪切应力 $ {\sigma }_{\mathit{S}\mathit{S}} $ 稳定状态下的法向应力 $ {\tau }_{SS} $ 稳定状态下的剪切应力 cp 稳定状态下的黏聚力 $ I({\sigma }_{0}, {\tau }_{0}) $ 初始状态点，表示土体在初始条件下的应力状态 $ SS $ 稳定状态点，表示土体在长时间剪切后达到的稳定状态 $ F $ 破坏点，表示土体在剪切过程中达到的破坏状态 FLP 破坏线（红色），表示极限破坏点的应力路径 FLM 稳定线（蓝色），表示稳定状态下的应力路径 $ {\varphi }_{\alpha \left(ss\right)} $ 稳定摩擦角线（绿色），表示稳定状态下的摩擦角 $ {\varphi }_{p} $ 破坏摩擦角（红色），表示破坏状态下的摩擦角 $ {\varphi }_{m} $ 稳定摩擦角（蓝色），表示稳定状态下的摩擦角
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表 3 LS-RAPID模型中使用的参数
Table 3. Parameters used in the LS-RAPID model
参数 取值 来源 侧压比 0.4 文献 滑坡体内摩擦系数 0.35 文献 运动过程中的摩擦系数 0.732 试验 稳态剪切阻力 56 kPa 试验 孔隙压力产生率 0.2 文献 峰值摩擦系数 0.65 文献 峰值粘聚力 100 kPa 文献 剪切位移/强度折减开始时 10.5 mm 试验 剪切位移/稳态开始时 5 000 mm 试验 岩土体的总单位重量 18.45 kN/m3 试验
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