Characteristics and Cascading Effects of the Blatten Avalanche in the Swiss Alps
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摘要: 2025年5月28日瑞士瓦莱州布拉滕村（Blatten）上游发生高位远程冰岩崩事件，滑体体积为830万m3，运动距离为3 300 m，堆积面积为2.66 km2，滑坡堆积导致1人遇难，300名居民撤离，隆扎河堰塞断流.综合遥感调查、滑震信号解译和动力学数值模拟等方法，揭示了瑞士Blatten高位远程冰岩碎屑流动力成灾过程与级联放大效应.结果表明：（1）瑞士Blatten滑坡发生过程主要呈现为高位冰岩崩加载-冰川融化变形-高位远程碎屑流成灾3个地质演化阶段；（2）该滑坡具有强烈的级联放大效应，上部危岩体逐渐垮塌堆积于Birch冰川之上，随着冰川上覆堆积逐渐积累和冰川强度的逐渐弱化，最终发生整体失稳，造成了此次巨大规模成灾；（3）冰屑和融水显著降低了滑体运动阻力，促进碎屑流低摩阻远程致灾.综上研究，认为在高位远程滑坡调查、风险评估与早期预警中，应充分考虑多次小滑坡累积成大灾的级联放大效应，该级联放大效应将大幅提高灾害的破坏力和危害性.瑞士Blatten滑坡为我国西部山区城镇风险区划和重大工程建设中面临的高位远程地质灾害风险提供了重要警示作用.Abstract: On 28 May 2025, a large rock-ice avalanche occurred at the Blatten village in Valais, Switzerland. The failure mobilized approximately 8.3 million m3 of material, traveled 3 300 m, and deposited over an area of 2.66 km2. The Blatten avalanche caused one fatality, buried the Blatten village and dammed the Lonza River. Integrating remote sensing analysis, seismic signal interpretation and numerical modeling, this study reconstructs the event and identifies its pronounced cascade amplification effects. The failure evolved through three distinct stages: high-altitude collapse, glacier melting and deformation, and transformation into a long-runout avalanche. Progressive debris accumulation and gradual glacier weakening were the key drivers of the large-scale hazard. In addition, low-friction ice and meltwater markedly reduced motion resistance, facilitating the long-runout movement. These findings highlight the need to account for the potential of multiple small-scale failures cascading into catastrophic events in avalanche risk assessments. The Blatten disaster offers important implications for hazard zoning and the planning of major infrastructure projects in high-mountain regions of western China.
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Key words:
- Blatten avalanche /
- initiation process /
- cascade amplification /
- dynamic /
- LPF3D /
- engineering geology
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图 1 瑞士瓦莱州Blatten滑坡地理位置与地质图
Fig. 1. Location and geological map of the Blatten avalanche in Valais, Switzerland
图 2 瑞士瓦莱州Blatten滑坡附近比奇峰气象台站数据
Fig. 2. Meteorological data from the Bietschhorn station near the Blatten avalanche
图 3 瑞士瓦莱州Blatten滑坡全貌与多时序遥感影像(收集于
https://www.rapidmapping.admin.ch/index_de.html )Fig. 3. Overview and multi-temporal remote sensing images of the Blatten avalanche
图 4 瑞士瓦莱州Blatten滑坡平面分区与横剖面图
Fig. 4. Zone division and cross-sectional profiles of the Blatten avalanche
图 7 流通区与洒落区遥感影像及现场照片
Fig. 7. Remote sensing images and field observations of the propagation and deposit area
图 8 堆积区影像对比分析图(收集于
https://www.rapidmapping.admin.ch/index_de.html )Fig. 8. Image analysis of the deposit area
图 9 距离滑坡源区最近台站的能量-时间关系
Fig. 9. Energy-Time relationship at the station closest to the avalanche area
图 10 基于地震信号反演灾害事件的力-时间函数以及对应的原始地震信号的时频谱
Fig. 10. Force-time function and time-frequency spec-rum of the Blatten avalanche-induced seismic signals
图 12 瑞士Blatten滑坡2024-01-03至2025-05-21时间序列InSAR形变监测
Fig. 12. Time-series InSAR deformation monitoring of the Blatten landslide, Switzerland, from 2024-01-03 to 2025-05-21
图 13 瑞士Blatten滑坡的高位冰岩崩滑加载阶段
Fig. 13. Loading phase of the rock-ice collapse onto the glacier
图 15 瑞士Blatten滑坡的高位远程崩滑阶段
Fig. 15. Rapid movement and long runout of the Blatten avalanche
图 17 Blatten滑坡速度与体积分数演化规律
Fig. 17. Evolution of velocity and volume fraction of the Blatten avalanche
图 18 Blatten滑坡(Google Earth影像)与中国色东普滑坡(Planet影像)对比
Fig. 18. Comparison between the Blatten avalanche and the Sedongpu landslide in China
表 1 数值模拟参数
Table 1. Modeling parameters for the Blatten avalanche
几何参数 滑体参数 边界参数 算法参数 滑体体积
(万m3)密度
(kg/m3)内聚力(Pa) 内摩
擦角(°)泊松比 摩擦系数 孔隙水压力系数 临界体积分数(浓密/稀疏/超稀疏)(%) 830 2 730 40 000 35 0.25 0.5 0.7 0.57/0.02 
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表 2 阿尔卑斯与喜马拉雅典型高位远程冰岩碎屑流灾害数据对比
Table 2. Comparison of typical long-runout rock-ice avalanches between the Alps and Himalayas
滑坡名称 灾害时间
（年-月-日）体积方量
(万m3)坠落高差(m) 冰碛物区长(m)/坡率(‰) 运动距离(m3) 最大运动速度(m/s) 成灾模式 瑞士Blatten滑坡 2025-05-28 820 1 700 630/470 3 300 > 30 高位冰岩崩-冰碛物融化变形-远程运动堆积 中国色东普碎屑流 2018-10-27 3 000 2 778 4 300/260 9 700 > 100 高位冰岩崩-冲击铲刮-远程运动堆积
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