Early Detection of Rainfall-Triggered Landslides Using InSAR and Stability Index
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摘要:
针对InSAR技术在短时强降雨诱发滑坡前兆识别中的不足，以四川理县西山村滑坡和黄泥坝子滑坡为研究对象，提出了一种耦合InSAR形变监测与SINMAP稳定性指数的降雨型突发滑坡早期识别方法.首先基于长期地表形变监测数据，通过可视性和测量敏感性分析定量评价InSAR的先验适用性；在低适用性区域，联合解析InSAR形变时序与稳定性指数时空演化特征，并构建时空交叉验证规则实现两类指标的有效融合与隐患综合判识.结果表明：西山村滑坡整体基本稳定，但降雨条件下前缘易发生局部失稳；黄泥坝子滑坡降雨敏感性强，但受几何畸变影响，InSAR难以捕捉其前兆变形.进一步利用该方法对2019年贵州鸡场镇降雨型突发滑坡进行重演验证，结果显示形变-稳定性指数耦合分析可有效识别InSAR单独监测难以发现的前兆信号，显著提升了降雨诱发突发滑坡的早期识别能力，为复杂地形区滑坡早期预警提供了新技术路径.
Abstract:Rainfall-induced rapid landslides triggered by short-duration heavy precipitation often exhibit undetectable precursory deformation in InSAR time series due to geometric distortions and limited temporal sampling. To address this limitation, this study develops an early identification framework that couples InSAR surface deformation monitoring with the physically based SINMAP stability index. Using long-term monitoring data from the Xishancun and Huangnibazi landslides (Lixian County, Sichuan Province), InSAR applicability was first quantitatively evaluated via visibility and measurement sensitivity analyses. In areas of poor InSAR performance, a spatiotemporal cross-validation strategy was established to integrate deformation trends with evolving stability index patterns for comprehensive hazard assessment. Results reveal that the Xishancun landslide is generally stable with only localized frontal instability under rainfall, whereas the Huangnibazi landslide is highly rainfall-sensitive yet challenging to monitor using InSAR alone due to layover and shadow effects. The approach was successfully validated on the 2019 Jichang rainfall-induced rapid landslide (Guizhou Province), effectively capturing pre-failure signals missed by InSAR. This coupled deformation–stability index method significantly enhances early detection of rainfall-triggered rapid landslides and offers a transferable technique for early warning in complex mountainous regions.
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Key words:
- rainfall-triggered landslide /
- InSAR /
- stability index /
- prior applicability /
- early detection /
- engineering geology
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图 1 常用InSAR技术可监测变形速率范围(单位：m/s)
Fig. 1. Deformation rate range monitored by the common InSAR techniques
图 2 研究区概况
a.滑坡平面位置示意图；b.黄泥坝子滑坡工程地质剖面图；c.西山村滑坡工程地质剖面图
Fig. 2. Overview of the study area
图 3 前期InSAR监测累积形变量与日降雨量
Fig. 3. Cumulative shape variables and daily rainfall from InSAR monitoring in the early stage
图 6 InSAR技术可视性与敏感性分析
a.升轨数据可视性；b.降轨数据可视性；c.升轨数据敏感性；d.降轨数据敏感性
Fig. 6. Visibility and sensitivity analysis for InSAR techniques
图 8 西山村滑坡、黄泥坝子滑坡雷达视向形变速率
a.升轨；b.降轨
Fig. 8. Radar deformation rate of Xishancun landslide and Huangnibazi landslide in apparent direction
图 9 黄泥坝子滑坡D-D'剖面InSAR形变速率
Fig. 9. InSAR deformation rate diagram of D-D 'section of Huangnibazi landslide
图 10 西山村滑坡、黄泥坝子滑坡
a.时序稳定指数；b.时序累积形变
Fig. 10. Xishancun landslide and Huangnibazi landslide
图 11 鸡场镇滑坡InSAR先验适用性分析结果
a.升轨可视性；b.降轨可视性；c.升轨敏感性；d.降轨敏感性
Fig. 11. InSAR prior applicability diagram of Jichang landslide
表 1 常用InSAR技术对比分析（李晓恩等，2021）
Table 1. Comparison of the common InSAR techniques
InSAR技术 优点 缺点 D-InSAR 覆盖范围广、数据量少、监测精度达厘米至分米级 易受时空失相干、大气效应制约对时空基线有一定要求，不适用于缓慢变形监测结果受DEM影响、无法得到时序数据 SBAS-InSAR 无需考虑时空基线、主影像选择问题、运算效率较高、监测精度可达毫米级别、可提取非线性形变 高相干点选取较难、应用推广存在一定的局限性、复杂形变环境易损失细节信息 PS-InSAR 对DEM、时空基线要求不高、适合监测城区、监测精度达毫米、亚毫米级别 形变解算精度依赖于PS点的空间密度、不适合大范围监测应用 POT 适合监测快速、大量级形变等滑坡、无面相位解缠处理、不受高相干性限制 形变监测精度受影像空间分辨率影响对大气相位的变化和低相干性不敏感 MAI 无需进行地形相位消除、相位解缠、能抑制大气相位延迟、可用于三维形变提取 MAI干涉图易受电离层影响、对干涉相位噪声提取敏感、低相干区适用性任、测量精度受限(依赖)于相干性、精度不高 RSSI 可测量大梯度形变，相对POT对地表特征依赖性小 对像素信号的杂波比敏感性高、对地表形变敏感性弱、小梯度形变区监测精度低 GB-InSAR 较低时间去相关，高时间分辨率、监测精度高、受外界影响小，采样周期短 只适用于单体已知滑坡、植被茂密区失相干严重、仅能观测视线向形变 
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表 3 研究区Sentinel-1数据基本参数
Table 3. Basic parameters of Sentinel-1 data in the study area
参数 Sentinel-1A 轨道方向 升轨 降轨 空间分辨率(m) 5×20 5×20 航向角(°) -12.7 192.7 视线入射角(°) 39.44 41.86 影像数量 31 29 影像时间 2019-06-21~2020-05-27 2019-06-09~2020-06-15
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表 4 稳定状况分级表
Table 4. Stability classification
稳定状况分级 稳定指数 稳定状况划分 稳定状态对应概率 稳定滑坡区域 SI > 1.5 极稳定 无条件稳定 1.5 > SI > 1.25 稳定 无条件稳定 1.25 > SI > 1.0 基本稳定 无条件稳定 非显性滑坡区域 1.0 > SI > 0.5 潜在不稳定 不稳定概率小于50% 0.5 > SI > 0 不稳定 不稳定概率大于50% 0 极不稳定 无条件不稳定
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表 5 计算参数
Table 5. Calculation parameters
计算参数 土体密度
(kg/m3)渗透系数
(m/d)黏聚力(kPa) 内摩擦角(°) R/T 下限 上限 下限 上限 下限 上限 黄泥坝子滑坡 1 590 1.036 8 16 24 20 36 1/60 1/200 西山村滑坡 1 760 1.296 0 25 38 30 35
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