Research Progress on Formation Mechanisms and Rapid Hazard Assessment of Snow Avalanche
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摘要:
开展雪崩形成机制和临灾危险性评估，对防灾减灾具有重要意义.梳理了雪崩分布区域特征及雪崩类型主要划分方式，系统阐述了雪崩影响因素及其启动-运动-堆积机理，详细归纳了积雪稳定性、雪崩抛程和雪崩危险性等级计算方法.在此基础上，进一步提出雪崩研究仍需要关注以下5方面：（1）构建全球统一的雪崩案例数据库，为雪崩形成及运动研究提供基础；（2）开展极端气候条件下积雪力学特性动态演化、不同地形和气候条件共同作用下对积雪性质的影响研究，厘清雪崩活动的时空演化规律；（3）建立雪崩启动概率定量分析模型，开展裂纹扩展机制研究，提出雪崩启动裂纹扩展表征方法；（4）研究雪崩运动中侵蚀互馈过程及物质和能量转化规律，构建雪崩堆积体形态尺寸与影响因素定量关系；（5）构建考虑动力学机理的雪崩抛程计算方法，提出雪崩动态风险评估模型，为雪崩灾害预测及防灾减灾技术研究提供参考依据.
Abstract:Investigation of avalanche formation mechanisms and pre-disaster hazard assessment is critically significant for disaster prevention and mitigation. This study synthesizes the characteristic distribution patterns of avalanches and primary classification methodologies, systematically elaborates on influencing factors and the mechanisms governing avalanche initiation, movement, and deposition. It comprehensively reviews computational approaches for snowpack stability, avalanche runout distance, and hazard level classification. On this basis, five key aspects are identified as requiring focused attention in future research: (1) A globally snow avalanche database is needed to provide a foundational resource for studies of avalanche formation and dynamics. (2) Dynamic evolution of snowpack mechanical properties under extreme climatic conditions and the coupled effects of terrain and climate on snowpack characteristics is needed, thereby elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of avalanche activity. (3) Quantitative models for avalanche initiation probability, crack propagation mechanisms, and initiation-related fracture growth characterization methods are needed. (4) Examine erosion-deposition feedbacks and mass-energy transfer during avalanche motion, and derive quantitative relationships between deposit morphology and controlling factors are needed. (5) Runout estimation methods based on avalanche dynamics and dynamic risk assessment framework are needed to provide important reference for disaster prediction and mitigation.
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Key words:
- snow avalanche /
- type classification /
- influencing factor /
- movement mechanism /
- risk assessment /
- engineering geology
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图 1 雪崩灾害（Eckert et al., 2024）
Fig. 1. Snow avalanche hazard (Eckert et al., 2024)
图 2 两种雪崩类型
a. 松散雪崩（Schweizer et al.，2015）；b. 板状雪崩（Heierli et al.，2008）
Fig. 2. Two types of snow avalanches
图 4 不同雪崩堆积类型
a，b. 堤坝式结构；c，d. 指状结构（Bartelt et al.，2012）
Fig. 4. Different snow avalanche deposit types
图 5 雪崩抛程示意图
Fig. 5. Schematic diagram of snow avalanche run distance Chernouss and Fedorenko(2001)
表 1 前国际冰雪委员会雪崩分类（UNESCO, 1981）
Table 1. Former international commission on snow and ice avalanche classification (UNESCO, 1981)
区域 判据 特征 分类 形成区 启动方式 始于点 松散雪崩 始于线 板状雪崩 失稳方式 积雪层内 表层雪崩 地表 全层雪崩 积雪中的液态水 无 干雪崩 有 湿雪崩 运动区 路径形式 开放的斜坡 无约束雪崩 沟槽 沟槽型雪崩 运动形式 雪尘云 粉雪雪崩 沿地面流动 流雪雪崩 堆积区 堆积体表面粗糙度 粗颗粒 粗糙的堆积物 细颗粒 细粒雪堆积物 雪中液态水 无 干雪崩堆积物 有 湿雪崩堆积物 堆积体污染情况 无明显污染 干净的雪崩 岩屑、土壤、树枝 受污染雪崩 注：液态水含量可以通过日本北海道大学低温研究所研制的积雪含水率测量仪测定（仇家琪，2005）. 
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表 2 雪崩影响因素
Table 2. Influence factors of snow avalanche
影响因素 主要作用 地形 雪崩一般发生在30°以上坡面，通常山区地形越陡峻，雪崩的发生和传播越容易 降雪 新降雪沉降速率影响雪层应力与雪层强度之间平衡，通常降雪强度越高越易引发雪崩 风 风速改变雪层密度和硬度，促进应力在局地聚集，进而增加雪崩发生可能性 温度 温度影响雪层物理力学性质，通常温度升高，雪硬度减小、韧性增加、胶结形成速度增加、雪层温度梯度减小 积雪 软弱层的存在是雪崩发生的必要条件
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表 3 积雪稳定程度指数（LaChapelle, 1974）
Table 3. Snow stability index (LaChapelle, 1974)
积雪稳定程度指数 雪崩状况 Ⅰ. 积雪极度不稳定 可以预期50%以上经常崩满运动区的雪崩会自然发生.其余的所有雪崩会对治理措施有反应，或者部分发生 Ⅱ. 积雪不稳定 10%经常崩满运动区的雪崩会自然发生.其余的大部分雪崩会对治理措施有反应，或者部分发生 Ⅲ. 积雪过渡性稳定A 很少产生自然雪崩.有些雪崩视其发育历史和位置会对治理措施有反应.该指数用在积雪不稳定期之后或者下雪期间 Ⅳ. 积雪过渡性稳定B 在无小量降水时或者在有小量降水期间，一些小块地区仍然保留不稳定性或者产生不稳定性 V. 积雪稳定 不会发生自然雪崩.只有在极端人为条件下才会释放
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