基于Copula函数的湖北省短时强降水IDF时空特征分析

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2025.289

基于Copula函数的湖北省短时强降水IDF时空特征分析

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2025.289

高伟^1,2,
廖贞闵¹,
秦鹏程^2,3, ,

1. 中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院, 武汉, 430078;
2. 全国暴雨研究中心, 武汉 430074;
3. 湖北省气候中心, 武汉, 430074

基金项目:

湖北省自然科学基金气象创新发展联合基金（2023AFD098）

全国暴雨研究开放基金（BYKJ2025M20）

中国气象局青年创新团队(CMA2023QN15)

详细信息

作者简介:
高伟（1980-），男，副教授，主要从事气象灾害监测与影响评估方面的工作. Email：Gaowei@cug.edu.cn。ORCID:0000-0001-7814-3712

通讯作者:
秦鹏程, qinpengcheng027@163.com

中图分类号: P426
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- 文章访问数: 101
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-11-06
- 网络出版日期: 2025-12-29

Spatiotemporal Analysis of IDF Curves for Short Duration Heavy Rainfall in Hubei Province Based on Copula Functions

Wei Gao^1,2,
Zhenmin Liao¹,
Pengcheng Qin^{2,3
, ,}

1. School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China;
2. Heavy Rainfall Research Center of China, Wuhan 430074, China;
3. Hubei Provincial Climate Center, Hubei Meteorological Bureau, Wuhan 430074, China

摘要

摘要: 为探究气候变化背景下湖北省短时强降水时空演变特征，基于1961-2025年湖北省74个气象站分钟降水观测数据，采用Copula函数与多种候选边缘分布构建了适用于不同地理区域的短历时（5-180min）强降水强度-历时-频率（IDF）曲线。空间分析表明，中东部地区IDF曲线设计雨强较西部地区偏高10%~224%，且在短历时、高重现期条件下差异更显著。时间序列分析表明，1991-2025年间短时强降水IDF曲线估值较1961-1990年增幅达1%~53%，且以短历时、高重现期增幅最显著。总体上，中东部城市化及平原与山地过渡区域的强降水强度与频率更高，极端强降水事件趋于集中、频发和增强，但东北部地区出现了强度下降的特征。研究结果可为支撑韧性城市规划与基础设施的适应性设计、优化防灾减灾规划提供科学支撑。
- IDF曲线 /
- Copula函数 /
- 短历时强降水 /
- 经验模型
Abstract: To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of short duration heavy rainfall in Hubei Province under climate change, this study developed Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for short duration rainfall (5-180 min) using minute-level precipitation observations from 74 meteorological stations in Hubei from 1961 to 2025. Copula functions combined with multiple candidate marginal distributions were applied to construct region-specific IDF curves for different geographical areas. Spatial analysis indicates that design rainfall intensities in central and eastern regions are 10%~224% higher than those in western regions, with more pronounced differences under shorter durations and higher return periods. Temporal analysis reveals that IDF estimates for short duration heavy rainfall during 1991-2025 increased by 1%~53% compared to 1961-1990, with the most significant rises occurring at shorter durations and higher return periods. Overall, heavy rainfall intensity and frequency are greater in urbanized central-eastern areas and plains-to-mountain transition zones, where extreme rainfall events are becoming more concentrated, frequent, and intense. However, a decreasing trend in rainfall intensity was observed in northeastern Hubei. The findings provide scientific support for resilient urban planning, adaptive infrastructure design, and optimized disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.
- IDF Curve /
- Copula Function /
- Short Duration Heavy Rainfall /
- Empirical Model

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基于Copula函数的湖北省短时强降水IDF时空特征分析

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2025.289

作者简介:
高伟（1980-），男，副教授，主要从事气象灾害监测与影响评估方面的工作. Email：Gaowei@cug.edu.cn。ORCID:0000-0001-7814-3712

通讯作者:
秦鹏程, qinpengcheng027@163.com

计量

Spatiotemporal Analysis of IDF Curves for Short Duration Heavy Rainfall in Hubei Province Based on Copula Functions

计量

目录

留言板

基于Copula函数的湖北省短时强降水IDF时空特征分析

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2025.289

作者简介: 高伟（1980-），男，副教授，主要从事气象灾害监测与影响评估方面的工作. Email：Gaowei@cug.edu.cn。ORCID:0000-0001-7814-3712

通讯作者: 秦鹏程, qinpengcheng027@163.com

计量

出版历程

Spatiotemporal Analysis of IDF Curves for Short Duration Heavy Rainfall in Hubei Province Based on Copula Functions

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
高伟（1980-），男，副教授，主要从事气象灾害监测与影响评估方面的工作. Email：Gaowei@cug.edu.cn。ORCID:0000-0001-7814-3712

通讯作者:
秦鹏程, qinpengcheng027@163.com