青藏高原水电工程区泥石流物源演化机理与监测预警技术研究进展

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2026.095

青藏高原水电工程区泥石流物源演化机理与监测预警技术研究进展

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.095

中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司, 四川成都 610031

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3008305)；国家自然科学基金资助项目(U22A20601)；中国电力建设集团有限公司科技项目(P61124)

详细信息

作者简介:
张世殊(1970-)，男，博士，正高级工程师，岩土工程专业，主要从事工程勘察与地灾研究.ORCID:0009-0006-1734-563X.Email:1992070@chidi.com.cn.

中图分类号: P642
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-11-05
- 网络出版日期: 2026-05-13

Evolution Mechanisms and Monitoring-Early Warning Technologies for Debris Flow Source Materials in Hydropower Development Zones of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Review

PowerChina Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031

摘要

摘要: 青藏高原深切峡谷区的高强度水电开发已成为与构造运动、气候变化并列的重塑地表过程的第三驱动营力，其诱发的灾害链具有极高隐蔽性与突发性，对传统防灾理论构成了严峻挑战。针对这一极端复杂环境，本文基于一线工程实践与多学科理论演进，系统综述了从物源演化机理到物理预警技术的全链条研究进展。在物源生成机制方面，揭示了工程扰动对孕灾环境的人工重塑效应，指出工程弃渣与深部卸荷裂隙构成了对静态液化高度敏感的人造/隐性物源，显著改变了灾害发育的物质基础；在动力演化规律方面，阐明了多场耦合驱动下的非线性动力学机制，特别是高位冰岩崩的超长运动受控于颗粒摩擦生热引发的相变热力学自润滑效应，而气候暖湿化与震后效应则分别驱动了物源的垂直迁移与损伤再生；在监测预警技术方面，论证了从地表几何形变观测向内部物理场反演的范式跨越，确立了基于地震动信号的流体动力学参数反演技术在工程实践中的核心支撑作用。最后，面向未来的极端不确定性，提出了构建物理—数据双驱动的智能预测体系，并倡导工程防控从单纯的刚性对抗向全生命周期韧性新范式转变。
- 青藏高原水电工程 /
- 工程扰动 /
- 多场耦合机制 /
- 物理预警 /
- 韧性防控
Abstract: Intensive hydropower development in the deeply incised valleys of the QinghaiTibet Plateau has emerged as a third geological driving agent, orchestrating surface reshaping processes alongside tectonic movements and climate change. The resulting disaster chains, characterized by high concealment and abruptness, pose severe challenges to traditional disaster prevention theories. Addressing this extremely complex environment, this paper provides a systematic review—grounded in frontline engineering practices and multidisciplinary theoretical evolution—of the full-chain research progress ranging from source material evolution mechanisms to physical early warning technologies. Regarding source generation mechanisms, the study reveals the artificial reshaping effects of engineering disturbances on the disaster-gestating environment. It underscores that engineering spoil and deep unloading cracks constitute anthropogenic/hidden source materials highly sensitive to static liquefaction, thereby significantly altering the material basis of disaster development. In terms of dynamic evolution laws, the nonlinear dynamic mechanisms driven by multi-field coupling are elucidated. Specifically, the ultra-long runout of high-position ice-rock avalanches is controlled by a phase-change thermodynamic self-lubrication effect triggered by frictional heating, while climate warming-wetting and post-earthquake effects drive the vertical migration and damage regeneration of source materials, respectively. Concerning monitoring and early warning technologies, the paper demonstrates a paradigm shift from surface geometric deformation observation to internal physical field inversion. It establishes the core supporting role of hydrodynamic parameter inversion techniques based on seismic ground motion signals in engineering practice. Finally, facing future extreme uncertainties, this paper proposes the construction of a physics-data dual-driven intelligent prediction system and advocates for a transformative shift in engineering prevention and control: from simple rigid resistance to a new paradigm of lifecycle resilience.
- Hydropower engineering in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau /
- Engineering disturbance /
- Multi-field coupling mechanism /
- Physical early warning /
- Resilient prevention and control

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青藏高原水电工程区泥石流物源演化机理与监测预警技术研究进展

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.095

作者简介:
张世殊(1970-)，男，博士，正高级工程师，岩土工程专业，主要从事工程勘察与地灾研究.ORCID:0009-0006-1734-563X.Email:1992070@chidi.com.cn.

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Evolution Mechanisms and Monitoring-Early Warning Technologies for Debris Flow Source Materials in Hydropower Development Zones of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Review

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青藏高原水电工程区泥石流物源演化机理与监测预警技术研究进展

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.095

作者简介: 张世殊(1970-)，男，博士，正高级工程师，岩土工程专业，主要从事工程勘察与地灾研究.ORCID:0009-0006-1734-563X.Email:1992070@chidi.com.cn.

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Evolution Mechanisms and Monitoring-Early Warning Technologies for Debris Flow Source Materials in Hydropower Development Zones of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Review

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出版历程

目录

作者简介:
张世殊(1970-)，男，博士，正高级工程师，岩土工程专业，主要从事工程勘察与地灾研究.ORCID:0009-0006-1734-563X.Email:1992070@chidi.com.cn.