雪崩-冲击气浪潜在启动区识别与致灾强度预测

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2026.180

雪崩-冲击气浪潜在启动区识别与致灾强度预测

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.180

庄宇^1,2,
陈仁朋^1,2,
高杨^3, ,,
王彦兵⁴,
朱姝⁴,
Perry Bartelt⁵

1. 湖南大学土木工程学院, 中国长沙 410082;
2. 湖南大学建筑安全与节能教育部重点实验室, 中国长沙 410082;
3. 中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 中国北京, 100081;
4. 国网经济技术研究院有限公司, 中国北京 102209;
5. 瑞士联邦积雪与雪崩研究所, 瑞士达沃斯, 7260

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目课题(2025YFF1704202)

国家电网有限公司科技项目(52200025000L-268-XN)。

详细信息

作者简介:
庄宇(1996),男,助理教授,博士。主要从事地质灾害防灾减灾方面的研究。zhuangyu@hnu.edu.cn,https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9390-9386

通讯作者:
高杨(1989),男,研究员,博士。主要从事地质灾害防灾减灾方面的研究。737263992@qq.com

中图分类号: P954
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2026-01-30
- 网络出版日期: 2026-06-29

Automated identification of potential avalanche release areas and quantitative risk assessment of snow avalanche-air blasts

1. College of Civil Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Building Safety and Energy Efficiency of Ministry of Education, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China;
3. Institute of Geo-Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Geo-Sciences, Beijing, 100081;
4. State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing, 102209, China;
5. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf 7260, Switzerland)

摘要

摘要: 随着西部大开发战略推进和国家重大工程的建设运营需求，雪崩因其超强流动性和巨大危害性成为了高寒山区地质灾害防控的突出问题。准确识别雪崩潜在启动区并开展定量致灾强度预测，是提升防灾减灾效能的核心需求。本文建立了基于多因子地形与雪层特征约束的雪崩潜在启动区识别方法，并结合RAMMS::Extended深度平均动力学模型，构建了“启动区识别-动力学模拟-风险区划”的雪崩致灾强度预测技术体系。该启动区识别方法在地形地貌和植被特征分析基础上，额外融入了雪层断裂效应的尺寸约束，可实现复杂山体条件下潜在雪崩启动区自动化识别；动力学模型量化了坡面积雪铲刮裹挟、雪水相变热融减阻与气浪成生传播等关键物理过程，可高效准确地模拟雪崩运动致灾全过程。以瑞士达沃斯Braemabuel与Salezer地区雪崩灾害为例开展分析，识别预测的潜在启动区特征和雪崩致灾范围与实际情况高度吻合，验证了模型有效性。本文方法区域适应性强，可迁移至数据匮乏的高山区域，实现大范围雪崩灾害快速风险评价，为藏东南等雪崩高发区的灾害预测与风险防控提供理论和技术支撑。
- 雪崩 /
- 潜在启动区识别 /
- 动力学分析 /
- 深度平均模型 /
- 致灾强度预测
Abstract: Snow avalanches pose a major hazard in high-mountain regions due to their high mobility and destructive potential, yet reliable identification of potential release areas (PRAs) and quantitative risk assessment remain challenging, particularly in data-scarce environments. Here, we present an integrated avalanche risk assessment framework that couples automated PRA identification with the depth-averaged dynamic model RAMMS::Extended. The PRA identification approach is based on multi-factor terrain constraints and explicitly incorporates snow slab fracture scaling, enabling robust delineation of release areas under complex topographic and vegetation conditions. The dynamic model further represents key physical processes governing avalanche motion, including snow entrainment, meltwater-induced friction reduction, and air-blast propagation, allowing efficient simulation of avalanche evolution. The framework is applied to two documented avalanche events in the Braemabuel and Salezer areas near Davos, Switzerland. The identified release areas and simulated runout distances agree well with observations, demonstrating the validity of the proposed approach. Owing to its low data requirements and strong regional transferability, the method is well suited for rapid, large-scale avalanche risk assessment in high-mountain regions.
- Snow avalanche /
- potential avalanche release identification /
- dynamic analysis /
- depth-averaged model /
- risk assessment

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参考文献(56)

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雪崩-冲击气浪潜在启动区识别与致灾强度预测

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.180

作者简介:
庄宇(1996),男,助理教授,博士。主要从事地质灾害防灾减灾方面的研究。zhuangyu@hnu.edu.cn,https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9390-9386

通讯作者:
高杨(1989),男,研究员,博士。主要从事地质灾害防灾减灾方面的研究。737263992@qq.com

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Automated identification of potential avalanche release areas and quantitative risk assessment of snow avalanche-air blasts

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目录

留言板

雪崩-冲击气浪潜在启动区识别与致灾强度预测

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.180

作者简介: 庄宇(1996),男,助理教授,博士。主要从事地质灾害防灾减灾方面的研究。zhuangyu@hnu.edu.cn,https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9390-9386

通讯作者: 高杨(1989),男,研究员,博士。主要从事地质灾害防灾减灾方面的研究。737263992@qq.com

计量

出版历程

Automated identification of potential avalanche release areas and quantitative risk assessment of snow avalanche-air blasts

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
庄宇(1996),男,助理教授,博士。主要从事地质灾害防灾减灾方面的研究。zhuangyu@hnu.edu.cn,https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9390-9386

通讯作者:
高杨(1989),男,研究员,博士。主要从事地质灾害防灾减灾方面的研究。737263992@qq.com