巴颜喀拉地块两次大震前地震活动图像与变形局部化

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2026.214

巴颜喀拉地块两次大震前地震活动图像与变形局部化

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.214

石富强^1,2,
杨晨艺^1,2,
邹俊杰^3, ,,
王朋涛⁴,
王芃³,
刘琦³,
季灵运⁴

1. 陕西省地震局西安 710068;
2. 陕西西安地球深部构造中国地震局野外科学观测研究站西安 710068;
3 中国地震局地震预测研究所北京 100036;
4 中国地震局第二监测中心陕西西安 710054

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划课题（2023YFC3012003），中国地震局地震科技星火计划（XH25035A），中国地震局震情跟踪任务（CEA-ZQGZ-202602015）、陕西省自然科学基金（2024JC-YBMS-210）和国家自然科学基金（42542206、42202255）联合资助.

详细信息

作者简介:
石富强,男,(1984-),博士在读,高级工程师,主要从事地壳动力学和地震活动性研究。E-mail:shifuqiang121@163.com/shifq@cug.edu.cn.ORCID:0000-0003-1866-6014

通讯作者:
邹俊杰，男，（1991—），博士，副研究员，主要从事活动构造、地震中长期预测及地震安全性评价研究。E-mail： zoujunjie@ief.ac.cn.ORCID:0000-0002-7619-3772.

中图分类号: P315.5;P642.3
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2026-03-25
- 网络出版日期: 2026-08-25

Seismic Activity Patterns and Deformation Localization prior to the Two Great Earthquakes within the Bayan Har Block

1. Shaanxi Earthquake Agency, Xi'an 710068, China;
2. Shaanxi Xi'an Deep Earth Structure Observation and Research Station of China Earthquake Administration, Xi'an 710068, China;
3. Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036;
4. The Second Crust Monitoring and Application Center, Xi'an 710054, China

摘要

摘要: 为深入认识与巴颜喀拉地块大震孕育有关的地震活动现象及其动力机制，本文并归纳了2001年昆仑山口西8.1级和2008年汶川8.0级地震前的区域地震活动图像时空演化及其共性特征，并基于岩石压裂的变形局部化理论定性解释了前述地震活动图像及其时空演化机理。发现两次大地震均发生在断层运动闭锁、应力增强且离逝率高的孕震晚期强震破裂空段，孕震过程符合准周期复发特征。孕震晚期震源附近地震活动水平不高，且在时空上表现出相似的演化过程，是典型的应力依从型前兆过程：震前数年至数十年地震活动图像异常及其时空演化是孕震晚期应力持续增强驱动下地壳岩石发生变形局部化的表现；震源区持续的地震活动平静，则与变形局部化过程中断层面的匀阻化作用有关。
- 地震活动 /
- 变形局部化 /
- 扩容模式 /
- 汶川8.0级地震 /
- 昆仑山口西8.1级地震 /
- 巴颜喀拉地块
Abstract: To further insights into the seismogenic mechanism of great earthquakes within the Bayan Har Block, this study revisits and synthesizes the previous research on the seismic hazard associated with the late-stage seismogenic phase of the 2001 M 8.1 Western Kunlun Pass earthquake and the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, with particular focus on the spatiotemporal evolution of seismic activity patterns prior to the two great earthquakes; furthermore their common features are also comparatively discussed and mechanically interpreted by the deformation localization theory validated by rock mechanics experiments. This study found that both great earthquakes occurred in the late-stage seismogenic gaps characterized by fault locking, increased stress, and very high elapsed rate, exhibiting quasi-periodic recurrence behavior. The low level of seismicity near the seismic source during the late-stage seismogenic period, coupled with similar spatiotemporal evolution, represents a typical stress-dependent precursory process. The anomalies of seismic activity patterns and their spatiotemporal evolution observed years to several decades before the earthquakes are essentially manifestations of crustal deformation localization driven by continuously increasing stress during the late-stage seismogenic period. The sustained seismic quiescence in the source zone is related to the resistance-uniformization of the fault plane during the deformation localization.
- Seismicity activity /
- Deformation localization /
- Dilation model /
- 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake /
- 2001 M 8.1 Western Kunlun Pass earthquake /
- Bayan Har Block

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巴颜喀拉地块两次大震前地震活动图像与变形局部化

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.214

作者简介:
石富强,男,(1984-),博士在读,高级工程师,主要从事地壳动力学和地震活动性研究。E-mail:shifuqiang121@163.com/shifq@cug.edu.cn.ORCID:0000-0003-1866-6014

通讯作者:
邹俊杰，男，（1991—），博士，副研究员，主要从事活动构造、地震中长期预测及地震安全性评价研究。E-mail： zoujunjie@ief.ac.cn.ORCID:0000-0002-7619-3772.

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Seismic Activity Patterns and Deformation Localization prior to the Two Great Earthquakes within the Bayan Har Block

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留言板

巴颜喀拉地块两次大震前地震活动图像与变形局部化

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.214

作者简介: 石富强,男,(1984-),博士在读,高级工程师,主要从事地壳动力学和地震活动性研究。E-mail:shifuqiang121@163.com/shifq@cug.edu.cn.ORCID:0000-0003-1866-6014

通讯作者: 邹俊杰，男，（1991—），博士，副研究员，主要从事活动构造、地震中长期预测及地震安全性评价研究。E-mail： zoujunjie@ief.ac.cn.ORCID:0000-0002-7619-3772.

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出版历程

Seismic Activity Patterns and Deformation Localization prior to the Two Great Earthquakes within the Bayan Har Block

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
石富强,男,(1984-),博士在读,高级工程师,主要从事地壳动力学和地震活动性研究。E-mail:shifuqiang121@163.com/shifq@cug.edu.cn.ORCID:0000-0003-1866-6014

通讯作者:
邹俊杰，男，（1991—），博士，副研究员，主要从事活动构造、地震中长期预测及地震安全性评价研究。E-mail： zoujunjie@ief.ac.cn.ORCID:0000-0002-7619-3772.