基于数值模拟的巴颜喀拉块体边界断裂强震时空活动特征

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2026.220

基于数值模拟的巴颜喀拉块体边界断裂强震时空活动特征

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.220

1) 地震动力学与强震预测全国重点实验室(中国地震局地质研究所)北京 100029;
2) 武汉大学, 地球与空间科学技术学院武汉 430079

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目（2023YFC3012004）。

详细信息

作者简介:
尹力(1989-),副研究员,博士,主要从事断层活动及岩石圈变形过程的有限元数值模拟、地震长期活动特征及强震危险性分析。E-mail:yinli2022@ies.ac.cn,ORCID:0000-0003-0850-6930

中图分类号: P315
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2026-04-01
- 网络出版日期: 2026-08-25

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Activity along the Boundary Faults of the Bayan Har Block Based on Numerical Simulation

1 State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics and Forecasting, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China;
2 School of Earth and Space Science and Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

摘要

摘要: 近年来，巴颜喀拉活动块体周缘断裂强震频发，其活动强度和时空迁移特征受到广泛关注。为揭示其特征，本文构建了包含巴颜喀拉块体主要边界断裂系统的三维黏弹塑性有限元模型，以地质和地形变观测数据为约束，获取了符合区域变形特征的模拟结果，在此基础上，计算了断裂系统的长期滑动速率，并生成了长期（数万年）的合成地震目录。通过分析各边界断裂上的强震活动频度及其时空迁移特征，圈定了强震高风险区。研究成果可为该地区强震风险评估提供科学依据。
- 地震时空活动特征 /
- 巴颜喀拉块体 /
- 边界断裂带 /
- 合成地震目录 /
- 数值模拟
Abstract: In recent years, frequent strong earthquakes have occurred along the boundary faults of the Bayan Har block, drawing significant attention to their seismic activity intensity and spatiotemporal migration characteristics. To investigate these features, this study constructed a three-dimensional viscoelastioplastic finite element model incorporating the major boundary fault system of the Bayan Har block. Constrained by geological and crustal deformation observations, the model yielded simulation results consistent with the regional deformation characteristics. On this basis, the long‑term slip rates of the fault system were calculated, and a synthetic earthquake catalog spanning tens of thousands of years was generated. By analyzing the frequency of strong earthquake activity and its spatiotemporal migration patterns along each boundary fault, high‑risk zones for strong earthquakes were delineated. The findings provide a scientific basis for seismic risk assessment in this region.
- Spatiotemporal characteristics of seismic activity /
- Bayan Har block /
- Boundary fault zone /
- Synthetic seismic catalog /
- Numerical modeling

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参考文献(75)

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基于数值模拟的巴颜喀拉块体边界断裂强震时空活动特征

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2026.220

作者简介: 尹力(1989-),副研究员,博士,主要从事断层活动及岩石圈变形过程的有限元数值模拟、地震长期活动特征及强震危险性分析。E-mail:yinli2022@ies.ac.cn,ORCID:0000-0003-0850-6930

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Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Activity along the Boundary Faults of the Bayan Har Block Based on Numerical Simulation

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出版历程

目录

作者简介:
尹力(1989-),副研究员,博士,主要从事断层活动及岩石圈变形过程的有限元数值模拟、地震长期活动特征及强震危险性分析。E-mail:yinli2022@ies.ac.cn,ORCID:0000-0003-0850-6930