A Judgement on the Characteristics of Future Eruption from Katla Volcano, Iceland
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摘要: 卡特拉火山近期活动频繁，其喷发概率、喷发规模、喷发方式及影响都备受瞩目.通过收集整理若干资料和分析计算，采用“将古论今”的研究方法，初步得到了关于卡特拉火山未来可能的行为方式及影响.根据卡特拉火山喷发的历史规律，估算2013年的喷发概率约为30%.卡特拉火山下次喷发规模可能为4级或5级，其喷发方式有3种：其一是岩浆冲破巨厚冰层发生爆破性喷发；其二是正常的岩浆喷发；其三是夭折的喷发.但根据现有资料分析，卡特拉火山最有可能是以见不到喷发的形式结束这次不稳定性活动.Abstract: Katla volcano shows an increased level of unrest recently.Therefore people are increasingly more concerned with the probability, scale and pattern of eruption from Katla volcano, and the potential influence as well. We deduce preliminarily the possible behavior pattern and the effect of the Katla volcano for its future eruption according to the speech "the past is a key to the present", based on collecting some published materials from international journals and internet. According to the eruption history of Katla volcano, a probability of volcanic eruption in 2013 is roughly 30%. The magnitude of next eruption of Katla should be VEI 4, but VEI 5 is also possible. Its eruption pattern has 3 possibilities: the first one is an explosive eruption that breaks through the thick ice cover; the second one is magmatic eruption; the third one is a "failed eruption". From the available information, it indicates that this unrest will be most likely to end up with no eruption.
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Key words:
- Katla volcano /
- eruption probability /
- eruption scale /
- eruption pattern /
- failed eruption
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图 1 冰岛主要冰川、火山带与代表性火山的分布图(改自Hooper et al., 2009)
Fig. 1. Distribution of representative volcanoes and glaciers in Iceland
图 2 卡特拉火山在2011-2012年与1999、2002－2005年的地震活动不稳定性对比(修改自IMO官网)
Fig. 2. Comparison of seismic activity during 2011-2012, 1999 and 2002-2005 unrest, Katla volcano
图 3 米达尔斯冰盖及卡特拉火山的地震分布
a、b、c、d分别为2011年12月27-29日，2012年3月30日-4月1日，2012年6月7-9日以及2012年9月4-6日的地震分布；●发生地震的地点；▲附近观测台，图中所有震级均小于3级(修改自IMO地震网)
Fig. 3. The earthquake distribution of Mýrdalsjökull and Katla volcano in December 27-29 (a), 2011 and respectively in March 30-April 1 (b), June 7-9 (c), September 4-6 (d) of 2012
图 4 冰岛卡特拉、埃亚、格里姆火山的火山颤动记录
a~d.卡特拉火山2011年12月5-14日、2012年4月13-22日、2012年5月25-6月3日和2012年8月26-9月4日的颤动记录；e.埃亚火山2010年4月11-21日的颤动记录；f.格里姆火山2011年5月7-20日的颤动记录；横坐标表示日期，纵坐标表示火山颤动的平均最大振幅强度.f中的E，N，Z分别表示东西，南北以及垂直方向的3个分量(修改自IMO地震网)
Fig. 4. Volcanic tremor records of Katla in May 5-14/2011 (a) and April 13-22/2012 (b), May 25-June 3(c), August 26-September 4 (d), Eyjafjallajökull in April 11-21/2010 (e) and Grímsvötn in May 7-20/2011 (f)
图 5 卡特拉火山及西侧的埃亚火山深部结构与喷发模型
●表示埃亚火山在3月13-21日的地震分布位置；□表示卡特拉火山在4月11-21日期间的地震分布位置；○表示卡特拉火山在6月24-28日期间的地震分布位置；△表示卡特拉火山在7月29日-8月8日期间的地震分布位置
Fig. 5. The deep structure and eruption model of Katla and Eyjafjallajökull volcano
表 1 卡特拉火山近2 000年来喷发历史及特征
Table 1. The eruptive history and features of Katla volcano in the last 2 000 years
时间(AD) 喷发间隔 VEI 火山灰体积(m3) 喷发特征 2011 0 冰下喷发？夭折的喷发？ 1999 12 0 冰下喷发？夭折的喷发？ 1955 44 0 冰下喷发？夭折的喷发？ 1918 37 4+ 7×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1860 58 4 2×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1823 37 3? 1×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1755 68 5? 1.5×109 冰下爆破性、放射状裂隙喷发 1721 34 5? 1.2×109 冰下爆破性喷发 1660 61 4 2×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1625 35 5 1.5×109 冰下爆破性喷发 1612 13 4 2×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1580 32 4 2×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1550 30 4 2×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1500 50 4 2×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1450 50 冰下爆破性喷发 1440 10 4 2?×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1416 24 4? 1.5×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1357 59 4+ 7×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1311 46 冰下爆破性喷发 1262 49 5 1.5×109 冰下爆破性喷发 1245 17 4 2×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1210 35 4 1×108 冰下爆破性喷发 1177 33 3 1×107 冰下爆破性喷发 1150 27 冰下爆破性喷发 1000 150 960 40 3 5×107 冰下爆破性喷发 950 10 冰下喷发伴有熔岩流 934 16 4? 5×109 裂隙式、冰下爆破性喷发，伴有熔岩流 920 14 4 2×108 冰下爆破性喷发 904 16 冰下爆破性喷发 820 84 冰下爆破性喷发 780 40 冰下爆破性喷发 680 100 冰下爆破性喷发 610 70 冰下爆破性喷发 590 20 冰下爆破性喷发 540 50 冰下爆破性喷发 500 40 冰下爆破性喷发 400 100 冰下爆破性喷发 290 110 冰下爆破性喷发 270 20 3 8.5×107 中央喷火口、冰下爆破性喷发 260 10 冰下爆破性喷发 200 60 冰下爆破性喷发 130 70 冰下爆破性喷发 30 100 冰下爆破性喷发 数据总结自http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/(空白处表示无资料记载). 
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