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    降雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警模型:以云南省红河州监测示范区为例

    李芳 梅红波 王伟森 李正杰

    李芳, 梅红波, 王伟森, 李正杰, 2017. 降雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警模型:以云南省红河州监测示范区为例. 地球科学, 42(9): 1637-1646. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2017.112
    引用本文: 李芳, 梅红波, 王伟森, 李正杰, 2017. 降雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警模型:以云南省红河州监测示范区为例. 地球科学, 42(9): 1637-1646. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2017.112
    Li Fang, Mei Hongbo, Wang Weisen, Li Zhengjie, 2017. Rainfall-Induced Meteorological Early Warning of Geo-Hazards Model:Application to the Monitoring Demonstration Area in Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province. Earth Science, 42(9): 1637-1646. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2017.112
    Citation: Li Fang, Mei Hongbo, Wang Weisen, Li Zhengjie, 2017. Rainfall-Induced Meteorological Early Warning of Geo-Hazards Model:Application to the Monitoring Demonstration Area in Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province. Earth Science, 42(9): 1637-1646. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2017.112

    降雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警模型:以云南省红河州监测示范区为例

    doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2017.112
    基金项目: 

    云南省级地质灾害防治项目 No.2016025007

    详细信息
      作者简介:

      李芳(1978-), 女, 博士研究生, 从事国土资源信息化的研究

      通讯作者:

      梅红波

    • 中图分类号: P694

    Rainfall-Induced Meteorological Early Warning of Geo-Hazards Model:Application to the Monitoring Demonstration Area in Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province

    • 摘要: 地质灾害气象风险预警模型研究一直是相关部门以及业界学者的研究热点,其预警可靠性问题也一直是研究的难点与技术核心,红河州是云南省地质灾害最为严重的地区之一,然而对于在红河州区域内的地质灾害气象预警却研究甚少.在云南省红河州示范区首次采用100 m×100 m的预警单元,综合考虑地质灾害的降雨诱发因子、地质环境因素,并基于信息量法构建地质灾害气象风险预警模型.该预警模型通过历史灾害事件回代验证,预警准确率可达81.8%.结果表明将气象因素与地质环境因素综合考虑纳入模型是可行的,是提高地质灾害气象预警水平的有效途径.

       

    • 图  1  研究区地理位置

      Fig.  1.  The geographical location of study area

      图  2  研究区坡度(a)和岩土体类型(b)空间分布

      1.层状软硬相间碎屑岩岩组;2.层状软硬相间浅变质岩岩组;3.薄-中层极软-较硬含煤砂岩、泥岩岩组;4.层状软硬相间碎屑岩夹碳酸盐岩岩组;5.层状软的页岩、泥岩夹硬的砂岩岩组;6.层状中-强岩溶化软硬相间的碳酸盐岩夹碎屑岩岩组;7.层状中-强岩溶化软硬相间的碳酸盐岩、碎屑岩岩组;8.层状、块状较硬-坚硬喷出岩岩组;9.多层土体;10.块状坚硬片麻岩、混合岩、变粒岩岩组;11.块状坚硬侵入岩岩组;12.中厚层状坚硬砂岩、砾岩夹软弱薄层页岩、泥岩岩组;13.中厚层状强岩溶化较硬-坚硬灰岩、白云岩岩组

      Fig.  2.  The spatial distribution of slope gradient (a) and rock and soil types (b) in the study area

      图  3  研究区地质灾害点(潜在灾害点)分布

      Fig.  3.  The distribution of geological hazards (potential disaster points) in the study area

      图  4  研究区地质环境敏感性分布

      Fig.  4.  The species sensitivity distributions of geological environment in the study area

      图  5  研究区降雨诱发指数分布

      Fig.  5.  The distribution of rain-triggered index in the study area

      图  6  红河州示范区地质灾害气象风险预警(2014-07-22)

      Fig.  6.  The geological disaster meteorological risk early warning in the Honghe demonstration district

      表  1  降雨特征临界值

      Table  1.   The critical value of rainfall

      降雨等级1级2级3级4级5级5级以上
      有效降雨量(mm)0~3030~8080~120120~160160~260>260
      下载: 导出CSV

      表  2  研究区地质灾害环境控制因子信息量值

      Table  2.   The information value of environmental controls of geological disaster in the study area

      评价因子类型信息量计算
      S0SA0AMi
      密度低91992110 573679 264-0.827 430
      密度较低425992217 360679 2640.421 009
      断层密度密度中等237992170 894679 264-0.074 580
      密度较高181992141 922679 264-0.195 480
      密度高5899238 515679 2640.044 265
      平缓6199247 267679 264-0.178 390
      缓坡192992131 930679 264-0.005 030
      坡度稍陡458992291 127679 2640.107 331
      较陡273992184 224679 2640.021 072
      陡峭899214 716679 264-1.425 680
      243992166 021679 2640.003 223
      河网密度中等318992222 490679 264-0.031 080
      较高273992189 911679 264-0.022 790
      158992100 842679 2640.101 460
      地貌哀牢山中山亚区627992342 673679 2640.325 265
      文山岩溶中山台地区365992336 591679 264-0.429 470
      地震烈度434992393 382679 264-0.404 600
      558992285 882679 2640.418 478
      一般区853992575 670679 2640.020 936
      矿山开采度较严重区3699236 837679 264-0.579 530
      严重区10399265 757679 2640.101 060
      433992418 219679 264-0.496 260
      较低215992121 467679 2640.277 405
      路网密度中等24199280 220679 2641.040 632
      较高7199242 572679 2640.191 546
      3299216 786679 2640.384 446
      块状坚硬侵入岩岩组13599283 605679 2640.144 931
      多层土体59923 082679 2640.151 694
      层状、块状较硬-坚硬喷出岩岩组3799228 089679 264-0.148 850
      块状坚硬片麻岩、混合岩、变粒岩302992154 613679 2640.419 519
      层状软硬相间碎屑岩夹碳酸盐岩岩组4099250 917679 264-0.894 520
      层状软硬相间浅变质岩岩组4799241 514679 264-0.367 300
      岩土体类型层状软硬相间碎屑岩岩组8799249 469679 2640.268 123
      中-厚层状强岩溶化较硬-坚硬灰岩4699258 916679 264-0.903 390
      中厚层状坚硬砂岩、砾岩夹软弱薄层3799235 246679 264-0.476 300
      层状中-强岩溶化软硬相间的碳酸盐岩1799225 384679 264-1.124 750
      层状软的页岩、泥岩夹硬的砂岩岩组11299267 033679 2640.194 188
      层状中-强岩溶化软硬相间的碳酸盐夹碎屑岩12099272 108679 2640.188 435
      薄-中层状极软-较硬含煤砂岩、泥岩79929 288679 264-0.954 380
      下载: 导出CSV

      表  3  评价因子权重取值

      Table  3.   The weight of evaluation factor

      评价因子地貌类型地震烈度断裂密度岩土体类型河网密度路网密度坡度矿山环境影响
      权重(k)0.129 00.096 80.129 00.225 80.096 80.064 50.096 80.161 3
      下载: 导出CSV

      表  4  地质灾害气象预报预警等级划分

      Table  4.   The classification of weather forecast and early warning

      预警等级风险低风险中等风险较高风险高风险很高
      预警指数<0.2350.235~0.7700.770~1.1551.155~1.485>1.485
      下载: 导出CSV

      表  5  研究区地质灾害气象预警等级与实际调查灾害点的对比(2014-07-22)

      Table  5.   The comparison between evaluation results and the investigative hazards distribution of study area

      预警等级分布面积
      (km2)
      a地质灾害
      点个数
      bb/a
      4 382.0565.26%48849.19%0.75
      中等1 749.5126.05%28228.43%1.09
      较高487.837.26%17817.94%2.47
      95.611.42%444.44%3.12
       注:a为本预警等级的面积占研究区总面积的百分比;b为落在该等级内的地质灾害点个数占地质灾害点总数的百分比;b/a为本预警等级中的地质灾害点密度与研究区总的地质灾害风险密度的比值.
      下载: 导出CSV

      表  6  研究区历史灾害事件与对应预警级别对照(2014—2015年)

      Table  6.   The comparison table of historical disaster events and corresponding warning level

      发生日期所属县乡镇、村组及具体地点类型对应预警等级
      2014-08-15金平县金水河镇普角村委会普角村滑坡较高
      2014-08-11金平县铜厂乡勐谢村委会新寨村滑坡
      2014-08-10金平县马鞍底乡中寨村委会黄家寨滑坡中等
      2014-07-23金平县金河镇哈尼田村委会上卢下寨滑坡
      2014-07-22金平县沙依坡乡沙依坡村委会邮电所上方滑坡
      2014-07-22金平县大寨乡敬老院滑坡
      2014-07-22金平县大寨乡中心小学滑坡较高
      2014-07-22金平县沙依坡乡阿哈迷村委会丫口寨滑坡
      2014-07-21金平县沙依坡乡土马村委会骂居迷村滑坡中等
      2015-10-10金平县阿得博乡阿得博村委会刘家寨滑坡较高
      2015-10-09金平县阿得博乡阿得博中学滑坡
      下载: 导出CSV
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