Unsupervised Clustering Reveals Pre-Eruptive Seismicity Evolution at Great Sitkin Volcano, Alaska
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摘要: 火山地震活动的时空分异特征为解析岩浆迁移与喷发前兆提供了关键约束.为阐明阿拉斯加Great Sitkin火山2021年喷发前的岩浆活动机制，对该火山喷发前的连续地震波形数据开展了系统性分析，采用模版匹配和双差定位法进行地震事件检测及精定位，并基于无监督学习层次聚类算法，对构建的高精度地震目录进行火山地震活动的分类与时空演化分析.获得的地震目录事件较阿拉斯加火山观测台（AVO）官方目录提升了4倍，层次聚类将这些地震事件划分为长周期地震（LP）和火山构造地震（VT）.结果显示，喷发前火山地震活动显著增强，且浅层LP事件在喷发前24 h达到活动峰值，这一现象或为关键喷发前兆信号.该火山此次喷发是由山顶火山口正下方上地壳深度的岩浆积聚和增压引发.Abstract: The spatiotemporal characteristics of volcanic seismicity provide critical constraints for deciphering magma migration processes and eruption precursors. To elucidate the magmatic activity mechanisms preceding the 2021 eruption of the Great Sitkin Volcano, Alaska, this study conducted a systematic analysis of the pre-eruptive continuous seismic waveform data from the volcano. Template matching and the double-difference relocation method were employed to detect seismic events and achieve high-precision relocation. An unsupervised hierarchical clustering algorithm was then applied to classify volcanic seismicity and analyze its spatiotemporal evolution based on the constructed seismic catalog. The resulted seismic catalog contains four times the number of events compared to the official Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) catalog. Hierarchical clustering successfully categorized the seismic events into long-period (LP) earthquakes and volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes. The results show that a significant intensification of volcano seismic activity was observed prior to the eruption, with shallow LP events reaching an activity peak 24 hours before the eruption, and it is possible that the phenomenon potentially represents critical eruption precursor signals. The eruption was mainly triggered by magma accumulation and pressurization at upper-crustal depths directly beneath the summit crater.
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图 1 Great Sitkin火山及其周边区域地形图
三角形表示地震台站，Summit代表火山山顶位置.图a显示了Great Sitkin火山沿阿拉斯加阿留申火山弧的位置
Fig. 1. Topographic map of the Great Sitkin volcano and its surrounding area
图 2 地震目录空间分布对比
a1、a2. 官方目录；b1、b2. PALM构建目录.圆点表示地震事件，颜色以深度编码，大小按震级缩放.剖面图区域以蓝色虚线框勾绘，沿AB线的深度分布剖面用蓝点表示
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution comparison of seismic catalogs
图 3 频度‒震级分布对比
实心圆点与实心三角分别代表累积分布与非累积分布，基于PALM构建地震目录和官方地震目录分别用橙色和和蓝色表示
Fig. 3. Comparison of frequency-magnitude distribution
图 4 根据P波谱的差异性将地震活动树状图分为20个集群
Fig. 4. Dendrogram of seismic activity divided into 20 clusters based on the differences in P-wave spectra
图 5 20个事件簇的平均频谱（红色）和中位频谱（黑色）
Fig. 5. Average spectra (red) and median spectra (black) of the 20 event clusters
图 8 整个研究期间的地震频度分布
Fig. 8. Earthquake frequency distribution during the entire study period
图 9 2019年7月至10月震源分布
a1、a2. A、B、C组；b1、b2. D组
Fig. 9. Earthquake hypocenter distributions from July to October, 2019
图 10 2020年1月至7月震源分布
a1、a2. A、B、C组；b1、b2. D组
Fig. 10. Earthquake hypocenter distributions from January to July, 2020
图 12 2021年5月25日至26日震源分布
a1、a2. A、B、C组；b1、b2. D组
Fig. 12. Earthquake hypocenter distributions from May 25 to 26, 2021
表 1 Great Sitkin火山纵波速度模型
Table 1. P-wave velocity model of the Great Sitkin volcano
纵波速度(km/s) 深度(km) 2.5 0.0(‒1.7) 3.0 0.5(‒1.2) 3.7 1.7(0.0) 4.1 2.2(0.5) 4.5 2.7(1.0) 4.9 3.0(1.6) 5.8 4.0(2.3) 6.6 7.0(5.3) 6.68 8.0(6.3) 6.8 11.0(9.3) 6.92 14.0(12.3) 7.04 17.0(15.3) 7.16 20.0(18.3) 7.28 23.0(21.3) 8.05 40.0(38.7) 注：模型顶部设定在海平面以上1.7 km以匹配火山的大致峰顶高度.括号中的数字表示相对于海平面的深度，负值表示海平面以上的高度.本模型采用的VP/VS比值为1.85. 
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